Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Market Dynamics: is it the right time to buy

This information has been sourced from economictimes article,
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Analysis/Equity_-_Is_It_The_Right_Time_to_buy/articleshow/msid-3845314,curpg-2.cms

There are several metrics which can be observed to get a fair guesstimate about the direction market is heading towards. They are:

Earnings Approach

The current level of Sensex implies 10.0 x – 9.4 x P/E of FY09 earnings and probably around 12.5x – 11.3x of FY10 earnings.
Historically, since 1991, Sensex has traded in the range of 10-30 times one year forward earnings. So, currently the Sensex is certainly at the lower range of the historical P/E band.
Even if things are likely to be different this time due to a worldwide recession, we do not expect more than 20% downside from these levels.

Book Value Approach

The current P/BV (Price to Book Value) of Sensex is hovering around 2.3 which is in the range of historic lows of 2-2.4.
In last 18 years, whenever the P/BV ratio had drifted to around 2, it has been followed by a smart pull back. For example, in November 1998 when Sensex fell to around 2800 levels (P/BV of 2), the next six months witnessed a strong pullback rally of more than 40% pushing the index to 4000 levels.

Conversely during last 15 years, markets have fallen sharply every time the P/BV ratio has crossed 6.5. January 2008 was no exception to this rule.

Falling Yield in Equity

Historically, it has been observed that whenever Equity yield has crossed the G-Sec yield, it makes sense to invest in equities.
On the other hand, whenever G-Sec yield has reached higher than equity by 4% or more, it has been a good opportunity to sell out of equities.
In January 2008, the G-Sec yield was higher than equity by this threshold margin. Since this indicator was very accurate in predicting the peak of the bull market, it may be used as a good sign to determine the trough of this bear market. Since Equity yield has already crossed the G-Sec yield, we may conclude that we are near the bottom of the cycle as far as equity markets are concerned.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Average Quartely Balance -- How is it calculated

To understand how AQB is calculated, here are some useful links:

http://www.hdfcbank.com/personal/accounts/aqb_pop_up.htm

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Futures and Options -- Let us Know

Derivatives are products that obtain their value from a spot price, called the “underlying”.In India, F&Os are the two popular derivatives instruments traded on stock exchange. While in a futures contract, you agree to buy or sell shares at a certain price in the future, the option contract gives you the right, but not an obligation, to buy (through a call option) or sell (through a put option) the underlying scrip at a specified date and at a specified price.To start trading in futures contract, you are required to place a certain percentage of the total contract as margin money.This feature of futures contract makes it a leveraged instrument since you can make a larger profit (or loss) with a comparatively small amount of capital. In India, futures contracts are available on equity stocks, indices, commodities and currency.

In options trading, you pay the premium for buying the rights to exercise your option. To take the buy or sell position on index and stock options, you are required to place a certain percentage of order value as margin money.An option can be a ‘call’ option or a ‘put’ option. A call option gives you a right to buy the asset at a given price or before a given future date. This ‘given price’ is called ‘strike price’.Similarly, a ‘put’ option gives you a right to sell the asset at the ‘strike price’ to the buyer. Thus in an options contract, the right to exercise the option is vested with the buyer and the seller has only the obligation but no rights.Since the writer of an option bears the obligation, he is paid a price known as ‘premium’.

Before venturing into unknown waters, analysts advise that you must fully understand the implications arising out of trade in F&Os. “It is trading on margin with a leverage of four-six times. You should know that in leveraged trading, the market fall is magnified to the extent of the leverage availed by you.Understanding your risk appetite and risk tolerance is important in F&Os trading,” says Sandeep Nayak, senior vice-president and head, private client dealing, Kotak Securities.The golden rule — never trade anything that you don’t understand — believe analysts, has a special significance for F&Os trading since the risk in them, with all the leverage and complexity, comes in multiple dimensions. “Unlike the cash market where your risk is limited to the amount you deploy, you can lose much more than what you’ve put in and in much more ways than a simple price move in the F&Os segment. Always think risk first and then think about returns,” cautions Nilesh Shah, CEO of Ambit Capital.

According to Shah, a first-time investor must not trade in F&Os due to the associated risks. Only after having invested in stocks for over three years, an investor should try to become a trader.“However, you must start with very small ticket sizes initially and only once you’ve gained confidence about the nature and working of these instruments should you look to increase your ticket size.You should try to seek expert advice at least in the initial part of your trading journey,” he feels. Nayak, too, feels that a first-time investor trading in F&Os is akin to an individual trying to swim in the deep end of the pool on day one of swimming class.

According to Shah, a first-time investor must not trade in F&Os due to the associated risks. Only after having invested in stocks for over three years, an investor should try to become a trader.“However, you must start with very small ticket sizes initially and only once you’ve gained confidence about the nature and working of these instruments should you look to increase your ticket size.You should try to seek expert advice at least in the initial part of your trading journey,” he feels. Nayak, too, feels that a first-time investor trading in F&Os is akin to an individual trying to swim in the deep end of the pool on day one of swimming class.

Example: On November 1, an investor feels the market will rise Buys one contract of November ABC Ltd futures at Rs 400 (market lot: 200) November 12 ABC Ltd futures price has increased to Rs 480 Sells off the position at Rs 480. Books a profit of Rs 16,000 (200x80).Options Example: On November 1, an investor is bearish on the market Current Nifty is 2,980. You buy one contract (lot size 50) of Nifty near month puts for Rs 20 each.The strike price is 2,940. The premium paid by you: (20x50) Rs 1,000.Your breakeven Nifty level is 2,920. If at expiration Nifty declines to 2,890, then Put Strike Price 2,940 Nifty expiration level 2,890 Option value 50 (2,940-2 ,890) Less: Purchase price 20 Profit per Nifty 30 Profit on the contract Rs 1,500.

Datarates provided by your body !!

Everything has the formula. How about the human body? Here is the one for human male penis…
(37.5MB x 100M x 2.25)/5 = (37,500,000 bytes/sperm x 100,000,000 sperm/ml x 2.25 ml) / 5 seconds = 1,687,500,000,000,000 bytes/sec = 1,687.5 TerraBytes/sec

And here is a conversation explaining the calculation I guess :)

1. The human cell contains 75 MB of genetic information 2. A sperm 37.5 MB.
3. In a milliliter, we have 100 million sperms. On average, one ejaculation releases 2.25 ml in 5 seconds.
Using basic math we can compute the bandwidth of the human male penis as:
(37.5MB x 100M x 2.25)/5 = (37,500,000 bytes/sperm x 100,000,000 sperm/ml x 2.25 ml) / 5 seconds = 1,687,500,000,000,000 bytes/sec = 1,687.5 TerraBytes/sec
Sweet
DoS attack!!!
a bukkake would probably be a DDoS then
11 men would give 17 petabytes/secComment:

##programming on FreeNode

How does a bank turn bankrupt

Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollars as there were only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.
1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B and C each owned 1 dollar.
2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So, now A and C own 1 dollar each while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.
* The net asset of the country now = 3 dollars.
3) Now C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country, and land is non producible asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he borrowed 1 dollar from A, and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the land from B for 2 dollars.
*A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B sold his land and got 2 dollars, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollars but with his 1 dollar debt to A, his net residual asset is 1 dollar.
* Thus, the net asset of the country = 4 dollars.
4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regretted having sold it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2 dollars from B and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollars. The payment is by 2 dollars cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollar loan to C. As a result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollars. But since he owed B 2 dollars, his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B loaned 2 dollars to A. So his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 5 dollars. A bubble is building up.
(5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the land. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollars. The payment is by borrowing 2 dollars from C, and cancellation of his 2 dollars loan to A.
* As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollars, but since he has a debt of 2 dollars with C, his net Asset is 2 dollars.
* C loaned 2 dollars to B, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 6 dollars; even though, the country has only one piece of land and 2 Dollars in circulation.
(6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.
(7) One day an evil wind blew, and an evil thought came to C's mind. "Hey, what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. There is only 2 dollars in circulation, and, I think after all the land that B owns is worth at most only 1 dollar, and no more."
(8) A also thought the same way.
(9) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore.
* So, in the end, A owns the 2 dollar coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owed C 2 dollars and the land he owned which he thought worth 4 dollars is now 1 dollar. So his net asset is only 1 dollar.
* C has a loan of 2 dollars to B. But it is a bad debt. Although his net asset is still 2 dollars, his Heart is palpitating.
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars again.
(10) So, who has stolen the 3 dollars from the country ? Of course, before the bubble burst B thought his land was worth 4 dollars. Actually, right before the collapse, the net asset of the country was 6 dollars on paper. B's net asset is still 2 dollars, his heart is palpitating.
(11) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2 dollars bad debt to B, but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1 dollar now.
* A owns the 2 coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B is bankrupt, his net asset is 0 dollar. ( he lost everything )
* C got no choice but end up with a land worth only 1 dollar
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars.
************ **End of the story; BUT ************ ********* ******
There is however a redistribution of wealth.
A is the winner, B is the loser, C is lucky that he is spared.
A few points worth noting -
(1) When a bubble is building up, the debt of individuals to one another in a country is also building up.
(2) This story of the island is a closed system whereby there is no other country and hence no foreign debt. The worth of the asset can only be calculated using the island's own currency. Hence, there is no net loss.
(3) An over-damped system is assumed when the bubble burst, meaning the land's value did not go down to below 1 dollar.
(4) When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows having the land or extending loan to others are the losers. The asset could shrink or in worst case, they go bankrupt.
(5) If there is another citizen D either holding a dollar or another piece of land but refrains from taking part in the game, he will neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land goes up and down like a see saw.
(6) When the bubble was in the growing phase, everybody made money.
(7) If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is worthwhile to borrow money (like A ) and take part in the game. But you must know when you should change everything back to cash.
(8) As in the case of land, the above phenomenon applies to stocks as well.
(9) The actual worth of land or stocks depend largely on psychology.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Stop Loss Trigger ??

I started trading today on the BSE. Here is something I need to know.

Stop Loss Trigger Tool

The Stop Loss Trigger Tool is actually a bit of a misnomer.

This tool is most useful in protecting your profits on an open position. The Stop Loss order is a conditional order to either Buy or Sell.

The condition being that the order is activated only when that stock trades at a specific price defined by you. As is the case in any order, you will have to specify the quantity and the limit price (or market price) at which you want the order to be executed.

And in addition you will have to specify a Trigger Price.

Only if the Exchange records a trade at the price defined as Trigger price by you, will your order will be activated.

In case you choose to use a Limit price (as opposed to market price) for your Stop Loss order, you must remember the following guideline :

    - For a Buy order, the limit price must be greater than or equal to the trigger price.

    - For a Sell order, the limit price must be less than or equal to the trigger price.

If, for a stop loss order to buy, the trigger price is 93.00, the limit price is 95.00 and the market (last trade) price is 90.00, then this order will be released into the system once when the market price reaches or exceeds 93.00. This order will be added to the order queue at the exchange with the time of triggering as the time stamp, as a limit order to buy at Rs95.00. Till such time that the order is triggered it will stay in a separate queue at the exchange which is not visible to other market participants.

Remember even the stop loss tool is valid only for a trading day. If your stop loss order is not triggered during the trading day, it shall lapse automatically at the end of the trading session.

When do you use a Stop loss order?

The Stop Loss order is a great way for a trader to manage his exposure in the market. Lets us say that a trader wants to buy ABC company at Rs100 because he expects the price to rise to Rs120 in a short time. But he does not want to take an unnecessary risk and hence he wants to exit the trade (sell his shares) in ABC company if the price drops below Rs95.

So he first buys 100 shares at Rs100. Then to protect himself against an unexpected movement and limit his losses he would punch in a stop loss sell order for 100 shares of ABC Co. with a trigger price of Rs95. He could choose to sell with a limit price of his choice or at market price.

So if the shares of ABC drop to trade at Rs95 his order is immediately triggered and pushed into the queue for execution.

This system finds similar application in the case of short positions.

Disclosed Quantity :
The system provides a facility for entering orders with quantity conditions: DQ order allows the member to disclose only a part of the order quantity to the market. DQ (Disclosed Quantity) should not be less that 10% of the Order Quantity and at the same time should not be greater than or equal to the Order Quantity.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Planting the seeds of Love


The things we have loved and tended continue to thrive, even when we can no longer care for them.

I go grocery shopping nearly every day. We go every two weeks for a full order, but it seems I always need something just when I am about to prepare dinner. I'm not sure if I'm just absent-minded, or if I really go to the store because I meet people there. A little of both, I guess.

This day would not disappoint me. I was trying desperately to find a tomato that looked like I just picked it off the vine in my garden. In reality my garden failed miserably this year. It was all my fault. I just didn't take care of it. But now I wish I had. The prices of fresh vegetables are high and the quality low.

In frustration I finally grabbed the best one I could find. Backing away from the counter with my meager selection in hand, I wasn't paying attention.

"Oh, I'm so sorry!" I said as I nearly fell over a woman in an electric scooter. Many stores have started providing them as a courtesy to those who have difficulty getting around. I see them everywhere.

Well, except for this one, and it was right behind me.

"Oh, that's okay. I'm used to it. They need to put horns on these things," she said with a smile. "We are positioned a bit lower and somewhat out of view. They are also so quiet that often times people just don't hear us coming. But I don't know what I'd do without one."

"I was so wrapped up in trying to find a good tomato," I said.

She nodded. "The prices keep going up, too. I used to grow my own. The best in the neighborhood. But this year I just couldn’t do it any more."

"Well, I grew cherry tomatoes this year. They weren't supposed to be. They were Big Boys that never grew up," I said, laughing. She then maneuvered her way closer to find one for herself. "I'm sorry for your challenges. It must be frustrating," I added.

"Well, it all requires a change in attitude. I could spend my time thinking about what I can't do any more, or spend it on what new things I can do."

Then backing up and turning her cart so she could face me, she continued. "Sure, I loved gardening. Besides my vegetables I also planted many flowers. I learned all the tricks of the trade to make them bloom bigger and better each year. I thought my garden would look so bleak, but it's wonderful. You see, even though I can't do all the things I once did, the flowers can. The perennials keep doing what they know how to do best. They came back again all on their own. All those years of love and attention kept them strong, so my work paid off. It's like raising my children. I did all the work and now they will take over from here."

"I love your attitude," I said. "But tell me, what new thing have you discovered? You said you need to focus on new things you can do."

"Well, I can go to the grocery store and make new friends by running into perfect strangers with my cart," she said, grinning.

"Or they can fall over you when they aren't paying attention," I put in.

"What I've discovered is I can't grow flowers any more, but I can paint them. Since I can't get around as much and they are just sitting there, we are a perfect match. The annuals, the flowers I won't see in my yard because they need to be replanted each year, are as much a part of my memory as the sunsets."

"Oh, another sunset lover."

"Yes, but the great part about sunsets is, you not only remember how beautiful the sunset was, you remember when and where you saw it."

"And the flowers?"

"When I hang my flower paintings on the wall, the fresh scent lingers in my soul from years of loving them up close. Again just like raising kids," she said.

"Just like meeting you, my friend. You added beauty to my day and will brighten the dark corners of my memory just when I need it most," I told her.

The tomato was perfect with dinner.

Source: http://www.beliefnet.com/nllp/Inspiration.aspx?WT.mc_id=Inspiration03&date=10-05-2008