Short Selling and Short Squeeze

At any given point, only a certain amount of a publicly traded company’s stock is floating freely in the market. The rest is held in various portfolios, funds, and investment vehicles. Now, everyone’s familiar with the basic idea behind the stock market: you buy stock when it costs little, and you sell it when it costs a lot, profiting on the difference.

But that assumes a company’s value is going to increase. What if, instead of betting a company will go up, you want to make money betting the company will go down? You can — by selling stock you don’t own.

Say you borrow a certain amount of stock from someone who already owns it. You pay a fixed fee for borrowing the stock, and you sign a contract saying you will return exactly the same amount of stock you took after some amount of time. So, you might borrow a thousand shares of Apple stock from me (I don’t actually own any, but play along), pay me $100 for the privilege, and sign an obligation to return my stock in 3 months. At the time, Apple stock is worth $10 per share.

After you borrow the stock, you immediately sell it. At $10 a share, you get $10,000. Two and a half months later, another rumor about Steve Jobs’ health sends AAPL crashing to only $6 per share for a few hours, so you buy a thousand shares, costing you $6,000. You give me back those shares. Because you successfully bet the company would go down in value, you earned $4,000 minus the borrowing fee. This is called short-selling or shorting the stock, and the downside is obvious: if your bet was wrong, you would have lost money buying back the shares that you have to return to your lender.

When Volkswagen’s share price exceeded the point where it made sense for Porsche to buy the company, a number of hedge funds realized that Volkswagen shares have nowhere to go but down. With Porsche out of the picture, there was simply no reason for VW to keep going up, and the funds were willing to bet on it. So they shorted huge amounts of VW stock, borrowing it from existing owners and selling it into circulation, waiting for the price drop they considered inevitable.

Porsche anticipated exactly this situation and promptly bought up much of these borrowed VW shares that the funds were selling. Do you see where this is going? Analysts did. According to The Economist, Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley warned clients not to play “billionaire’s poker” against Porsche. Porsche denied any foul play, saying it wasn’t doing anything unusual.

But then, last October 26th, they stepped forward and bared their portfolio: through a combination of stock and options, they owned 75% of Volkswagen, which is almost all the company’s circulating stock. (The remainder is tied up in funds that cannot easily release it.)

To put it mildly, the numbers scared the living hell out of the hedge funds: if they didn’t immediately buy back the Volkswagen stock they were shorting, there might not be any left to buy later, and it isn’t their stock — they have to return it to someone. If their only option is thus to buy the VW stock from Porsche, then the miracle of supply and demand will hit again, and Porsche can ask for whatever price it wants per VW share — twenty times their value, a hundred times their value — because there’s no other place to buy. They’re the only game in town.

And that, my friends, is called a short squeeze.

Know your Credit Report Card

Following information is sourced from Rediff Money article: http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/dec/29what-everyone-must-know-about-cibil.htm

Currently banks, financial institutions, state financial corporations, non-banking financial companies, housing finance companies and credit card companies are members of CIBIL.

The idea behind setting up CIBIL is to gather all existing consumer and commercial credit information and pool it in a one-point source, for reference.

As in, an individual or commercial establishment could have accounts in several banks and credit from different lending institutions. All such data can be pulled out at one single point, for a quick reference check on the individual or commercial establishment seeking a loan.

This helps the lender, be aware of the repayment track record of the loan seeker and quickly decide on loan eligibility. According to the nature of the track record, a borrower is given a credit score. A poor credit score will make getting a loan, a difficult proposition for the borrower.

CIBIL acts as weeding mechanism that helps identify poor repayment track records. It helps protect lenders from giving credit to people and establishments who are unlikely to repay what is lent. Even if credit is provided, it is done so at a very high rate of interest, thereby ensuring that the bank is able to recover a considerable sum of money even if a default happens some time into the loan tenure.

On the other hand, if you have an impeccable repayment track record, you can reap benefits from it! Banks provide a lower interest rate for sound credit profiles that have excellent credit scores and such 'Credit Information Reports' can work to your advantage.

It also helps lenders and banks quickly process a loan, without wasting valuable time on research and background check on the loan applicant.

Well, this is the brighter side of things. There is a flip side to this, too. As with all mass processing systems that are not dependent on a single source for information, there are quite a few things that could be incorrectly recorded in the credit information reports, which are stored with CIBIL.

Here are a few instances, detailed for your understanding:

Lack of updated info: You might have defaulted on a sum of money, say Rs 12,000 but repaid the sum later, maybe well past the due date for the payment. There could be instances where CIBIL did not get the updated info for its records. This will show up as a default and will affect the calculation of a good credit score.

Confusion of names: There can be thousands of names that are similar in the CIBIL database. Things can go haywire if a person who shares your name has defaulted and all his defaults get recorded in your file.

There was this one instance, which a loan applicant reported. Her name, Anju Jadeja, was confused with Anjum Taneja. Turns out Anjum Taneja passed away tragically in a freak accident, with nobody able to identify her until bank authorities decided to investigate the applicant after CIBIL corrected and ratified Anju Jadeja's credit report.

Till that point in time, the bank had put down Anjum's bouncing cheques, as defaults on loan payments in Anju's credit report. Today, Anju is a relieved woman.

Human input error: The information that goes from the banks to CIBIL on a loan or credit card payment default may have been erroneous due to a simple input error by one of the bank employees.

There was this instance when there was an accidental default of a month overdue payment of Rs 18,000 of one Tanushree Omkar. She cleared it the next month. However, the record that went to CIBI, had two additional zeroes, which made the default amount to Rs 18 lakh (Rs 1.8 million)!

Identity theft: This is the most serious of all causes of errors and can have a disastrous impact on a person's credit profile.

In recent times, identity thefts are on the rise. Right from a petty shopkeeper who swipes your card several times to sneak in an unofficial payment, to a terrorist who wants to access a billionaire's account in a remote corner of the world, identity theft is becoming a serious crime that needs to be checked.

If you are a victim of identity theft, like Anupam Shekar was, then it is time to get your financial log in order. Keep track of all the cards that you use or do not use. In Anupam's case, an impostor had captured his PAN card details using a clever ploy. Anupam recalled that someone had wanted to deliver a mail from his local bank only on the basis of identification and had been examining the PAN card given with great curiosity.

It was then that it struck him that anyone could access his mailbox in the huge apartment complex he resided in. The impostor then went on to open an account with a bank entering all the details he had gathered on Anupam by accessing his mailbox. Anupam did not know for a long time about this until he decided to apply for a new credit card and his bank rejected him outright, labelling him a defaulter. Anupam had to go to great lengths, spending precious time and energy, to clear his name.

Apparently, the impostor had directed all bank communication to another address, got a credit card on that account and spent indiscriminately until the card was locked by the bank due to several defaults on repayment.

The account was frozen but the impostor walked away scot free to scout for his next victim, but not before Anupam Shekar's credit report was tarnished beyond repair.

Fixing an incorrect CIBIL record

If you need to seek clarifications in your credit report, here are the steps you should follow:

a. Contact the bank that declined a credit card or loan application on the basis of your poor credit score. Ask them for a clarification on the poor credit score and request them to provide the control number for your credit report.

b. The bank will provide you with the control number of the credit report and also share the information on the credit report that is responsible for your poor credit score.

Get in touch with CIBIL by calling their help desk numbers at 1800 - 224 / 245 or +91 22 6638 4600 / 2281 7788 provided on their Web site, http://www.cibil.com/.

You could also drop in an email at info@cibil.com referring your credit report's control number. When attempting to clarify the information on your credit report, you need to inform CIBIL about the exact nature of the discrepancies in the report that you have been made aware of, by the bank.

The importance of the control number

The control number is a nine-digit unique number that helps CIBIL track an individual's credit t report from its database.

Banks feed in borrower data and personal information, which the CIBIL systems pool together. The control number is generated when banks pull out your credit report on a requirement basis.

The control number is generated every time any bank or credit institution pulls out a credit report on you. CIBIL requires this number because it enables them to view the exact details that the bank has seen when they drew a report on you. Hence, it is important for you to request the bank to provide you the control number.

Dealing with an uncooperative bank

When the bank is uncooperative you could post a complaint on the bank's Web site and if the bank does not respond within 15 days, you can register a complaint with the banking Ombudsman, presenting a copy of the complaint posted on the bank's Web site as proof.

You can either register this complaint through their Web site, http://www.bankingombudsman.rbi.org.in/ or locate the nearest branch office through this link, http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Content/PDFs/68033.pdf to register your complaint.

Need for direct access to credit reports for borrowers

It is the need of the hour for CIBIL to allow borrowers to access their respective credit reports not only on cases when the information needs to be verified but also as a way for individuals to keep a tab on their money inflow and outflow.

Market Dynamics: is it the right time to buy

This information has been sourced from economictimes article,
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Analysis/Equity_-_Is_It_The_Right_Time_to_buy/articleshow/msid-3845314,curpg-2.cms

There are several metrics which can be observed to get a fair guesstimate about the direction market is heading towards. They are:

Earnings Approach

The current level of Sensex implies 10.0 x – 9.4 x P/E of FY09 earnings and probably around 12.5x – 11.3x of FY10 earnings.
Historically, since 1991, Sensex has traded in the range of 10-30 times one year forward earnings. So, currently the Sensex is certainly at the lower range of the historical P/E band.
Even if things are likely to be different this time due to a worldwide recession, we do not expect more than 20% downside from these levels.

Book Value Approach

The current P/BV (Price to Book Value) of Sensex is hovering around 2.3 which is in the range of historic lows of 2-2.4.
In last 18 years, whenever the P/BV ratio had drifted to around 2, it has been followed by a smart pull back. For example, in November 1998 when Sensex fell to around 2800 levels (P/BV of 2), the next six months witnessed a strong pullback rally of more than 40% pushing the index to 4000 levels.

Conversely during last 15 years, markets have fallen sharply every time the P/BV ratio has crossed 6.5. January 2008 was no exception to this rule.

Falling Yield in Equity

Historically, it has been observed that whenever Equity yield has crossed the G-Sec yield, it makes sense to invest in equities.
On the other hand, whenever G-Sec yield has reached higher than equity by 4% or more, it has been a good opportunity to sell out of equities.
In January 2008, the G-Sec yield was higher than equity by this threshold margin. Since this indicator was very accurate in predicting the peak of the bull market, it may be used as a good sign to determine the trough of this bear market. Since Equity yield has already crossed the G-Sec yield, we may conclude that we are near the bottom of the cycle as far as equity markets are concerned.

Average Quartely Balance -- How is it calculated

To understand how AQB is calculated, here are some useful links:

http://www.hdfcbank.com/personal/accounts/aqb_pop_up.htm

Futures and Options -- Let us Know

Derivatives are products that obtain their value from a spot price, called the “underlying”.In India, F&Os are the two popular derivatives instruments traded on stock exchange. While in a futures contract, you agree to buy or sell shares at a certain price in the future, the option contract gives you the right, but not an obligation, to buy (through a call option) or sell (through a put option) the underlying scrip at a specified date and at a specified price.To start trading in futures contract, you are required to place a certain percentage of the total contract as margin money.This feature of futures contract makes it a leveraged instrument since you can make a larger profit (or loss) with a comparatively small amount of capital. In India, futures contracts are available on equity stocks, indices, commodities and currency.

In options trading, you pay the premium for buying the rights to exercise your option. To take the buy or sell position on index and stock options, you are required to place a certain percentage of order value as margin money.An option can be a ‘call’ option or a ‘put’ option. A call option gives you a right to buy the asset at a given price or before a given future date. This ‘given price’ is called ‘strike price’.Similarly, a ‘put’ option gives you a right to sell the asset at the ‘strike price’ to the buyer. Thus in an options contract, the right to exercise the option is vested with the buyer and the seller has only the obligation but no rights.Since the writer of an option bears the obligation, he is paid a price known as ‘premium’.

Before venturing into unknown waters, analysts advise that you must fully understand the implications arising out of trade in F&Os. “It is trading on margin with a leverage of four-six times. You should know that in leveraged trading, the market fall is magnified to the extent of the leverage availed by you.Understanding your risk appetite and risk tolerance is important in F&Os trading,” says Sandeep Nayak, senior vice-president and head, private client dealing, Kotak Securities.The golden rule — never trade anything that you don’t understand — believe analysts, has a special significance for F&Os trading since the risk in them, with all the leverage and complexity, comes in multiple dimensions. “Unlike the cash market where your risk is limited to the amount you deploy, you can lose much more than what you’ve put in and in much more ways than a simple price move in the F&Os segment. Always think risk first and then think about returns,” cautions Nilesh Shah, CEO of Ambit Capital.

According to Shah, a first-time investor must not trade in F&Os due to the associated risks. Only after having invested in stocks for over three years, an investor should try to become a trader.“However, you must start with very small ticket sizes initially and only once you’ve gained confidence about the nature and working of these instruments should you look to increase your ticket size.You should try to seek expert advice at least in the initial part of your trading journey,” he feels. Nayak, too, feels that a first-time investor trading in F&Os is akin to an individual trying to swim in the deep end of the pool on day one of swimming class.

According to Shah, a first-time investor must not trade in F&Os due to the associated risks. Only after having invested in stocks for over three years, an investor should try to become a trader.“However, you must start with very small ticket sizes initially and only once you’ve gained confidence about the nature and working of these instruments should you look to increase your ticket size.You should try to seek expert advice at least in the initial part of your trading journey,” he feels. Nayak, too, feels that a first-time investor trading in F&Os is akin to an individual trying to swim in the deep end of the pool on day one of swimming class.

Example: On November 1, an investor feels the market will rise Buys one contract of November ABC Ltd futures at Rs 400 (market lot: 200) November 12 ABC Ltd futures price has increased to Rs 480 Sells off the position at Rs 480. Books a profit of Rs 16,000 (200x80).Options Example: On November 1, an investor is bearish on the market Current Nifty is 2,980. You buy one contract (lot size 50) of Nifty near month puts for Rs 20 each.The strike price is 2,940. The premium paid by you: (20x50) Rs 1,000.Your breakeven Nifty level is 2,920. If at expiration Nifty declines to 2,890, then Put Strike Price 2,940 Nifty expiration level 2,890 Option value 50 (2,940-2 ,890) Less: Purchase price 20 Profit per Nifty 30 Profit on the contract Rs 1,500.

How does a bank turn bankrupt

Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollars as there were only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.
1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B and C each owned 1 dollar.
2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So, now A and C own 1 dollar each while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.
* The net asset of the country now = 3 dollars.
3) Now C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country, and land is non producible asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he borrowed 1 dollar from A, and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the land from B for 2 dollars.
*A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B sold his land and got 2 dollars, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollars but with his 1 dollar debt to A, his net residual asset is 1 dollar.
* Thus, the net asset of the country = 4 dollars.
4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regretted having sold it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2 dollars from B and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollars. The payment is by 2 dollars cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollar loan to C. As a result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollars. But since he owed B 2 dollars, his net asset is 1 dollar.
* B loaned 2 dollars to A. So his net asset is 2 dollars.
* C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 5 dollars. A bubble is building up.
(5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the land. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollars. The payment is by borrowing 2 dollars from C, and cancellation of his 2 dollars loan to A.
* As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollars, but since he has a debt of 2 dollars with C, his net Asset is 2 dollars.
* C loaned 2 dollars to B, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
* The net asset of the country = 6 dollars; even though, the country has only one piece of land and 2 Dollars in circulation.
(6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.
(7) One day an evil wind blew, and an evil thought came to C's mind. "Hey, what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. There is only 2 dollars in circulation, and, I think after all the land that B owns is worth at most only 1 dollar, and no more."
(8) A also thought the same way.
(9) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore.
* So, in the end, A owns the 2 dollar coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B owed C 2 dollars and the land he owned which he thought worth 4 dollars is now 1 dollar. So his net asset is only 1 dollar.
* C has a loan of 2 dollars to B. But it is a bad debt. Although his net asset is still 2 dollars, his Heart is palpitating.
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars again.
(10) So, who has stolen the 3 dollars from the country ? Of course, before the bubble burst B thought his land was worth 4 dollars. Actually, right before the collapse, the net asset of the country was 6 dollars on paper. B's net asset is still 2 dollars, his heart is palpitating.
(11) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2 dollars bad debt to B, but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1 dollar now.
* A owns the 2 coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.
* B is bankrupt, his net asset is 0 dollar. ( he lost everything )
* C got no choice but end up with a land worth only 1 dollar
* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars.
************ **End of the story; BUT ************ ********* ******
There is however a redistribution of wealth.
A is the winner, B is the loser, C is lucky that he is spared.
A few points worth noting -
(1) When a bubble is building up, the debt of individuals to one another in a country is also building up.
(2) This story of the island is a closed system whereby there is no other country and hence no foreign debt. The worth of the asset can only be calculated using the island's own currency. Hence, there is no net loss.
(3) An over-damped system is assumed when the bubble burst, meaning the land's value did not go down to below 1 dollar.
(4) When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows having the land or extending loan to others are the losers. The asset could shrink or in worst case, they go bankrupt.
(5) If there is another citizen D either holding a dollar or another piece of land but refrains from taking part in the game, he will neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land goes up and down like a see saw.
(6) When the bubble was in the growing phase, everybody made money.
(7) If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is worthwhile to borrow money (like A ) and take part in the game. But you must know when you should change everything back to cash.
(8) As in the case of land, the above phenomenon applies to stocks as well.
(9) The actual worth of land or stocks depend largely on psychology.

Stop Loss Trigger ??

I started trading today on the BSE. Here is something I need to know.

Stop Loss Trigger Tool

The Stop Loss Trigger Tool is actually a bit of a misnomer.

This tool is most useful in protecting your profits on an open position. The Stop Loss order is a conditional order to either Buy or Sell.

The condition being that the order is activated only when that stock trades at a specific price defined by you. As is the case in any order, you will have to specify the quantity and the limit price (or market price) at which you want the order to be executed.

And in addition you will have to specify a Trigger Price.

Only if the Exchange records a trade at the price defined as Trigger price by you, will your order will be activated.

In case you choose to use a Limit price (as opposed to market price) for your Stop Loss order, you must remember the following guideline :

- For a Buy order, the limit price must be greater than or equal to the trigger price.

- For a Sell order, the limit price must be less than or equal to the trigger price.

If, for a stop loss order to buy, the trigger price is 93.00, the limit price is 95.00 and the market (last trade) price is 90.00, then this order will be released into the system once when the market price reaches or exceeds 93.00. This order will be added to the order queue at the exchange with the time of triggering as the time stamp, as a limit order to buy at Rs95.00. Till such time that the order is triggered it will stay in a separate queue at the exchange which is not visible to other market participants.

Remember even the stop loss tool is valid only for a trading day. If your stop loss order is not triggered during the trading day, it shall lapse automatically at the end of the trading session.

When do you use a Stop loss order?

The Stop Loss order is a great way for a trader to manage his exposure in the market. Lets us say that a trader wants to buy ABC company at Rs100 because he expects the price to rise to Rs120 in a short time. But he does not want to take an unnecessary risk and hence he wants to exit the trade (sell his shares) in ABC company if the price drops below Rs95.

So he first buys 100 shares at Rs100. Then to protect himself against an unexpected movement and limit his losses he would punch in a stop loss sell order for 100 shares of ABC Co. with a trigger price of Rs95. He could choose to sell with a limit price of his choice or at market price.

So if the shares of ABC drop to trade at Rs95 his order is immediately triggered and pushed into the queue for execution.

This system finds similar application in the case of short positions.

Disclosed Quantity :
The system provides a facility for entering orders with quantity conditions: DQ order allows the member to disclose only a part of the order quantity to the market. DQ (Disclosed Quantity) should not be less that 10% of the Order Quantity and at the same time should not be greater than or equal to the Order Quantity.

Investment Banking - What do they do

An investment bank uses its proprietary book (own money) to lend others and invest. It started with the subprime crisis. Banks like Lehman, buy mortgage loans from other banks, and then package them to sell bonds against the loan pool. Often they add cash to make the loan pool more attractive, so that the bonds can be sold at a higher price.

Suppose mortgage was earning 6%, these bonds are sold at 4%. The difference is the spread which the investment bank earns. By selling these structured bonds, it raises money and frees capital. But when homebuyers started defaulting, these bonds lost their value. It all began like this, and then the virus spreads across markets.

Systematic Investment Plans aka SIP

Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) are much misunderstood. For one, investors often mistake SIPs as an investment avenue rather than a mode of investing in mutual funds. Then there are investors who invest in SIPs expecting quick results without fully appreciating the need to invest via SIPs for the long-term.

In an earlier article, we discussed how SIPs are perceived incorrectly by many investors as standalone investments. This explains why one of the most common queries we receive on the website is – which is the best SIP? Unfortunately, these investors have not been educated by their investment advisors about SIPs i.e. SIPs are only a mode of investing and not an independent investment avenue.

Minimum tenure of an SIP
Another misconception investors have about SIPs is with regards to the minimum tenure. Most fund houses have a minimum SIP tenure of 6 months. This leads investors to believe that 6 months is the ideal time frame for investing via SIPs (just like a lot of investors invest Rs 5,000 in mutual funds simply because that is the minimum investment amount for several mutual fund schemes).

In our view, investors should ideally invest via SIPs over at least 2-3 years. This way they can exploit the most critical benefit of an SIP – rupee cost averaging. Let’s understand how this is possible.

For an SIP to deliver the goods, it must witness a falling market. This way the investor can average out his cost of purchase. If the investor does not witness a downturn, i.e. he is only exposed to a market rally, the average purchase cost of his SIP will rise over a period of time.

SIPs in a rising market

Month of investment	NAV (Rs)	No. of Units
January	11.00	45.45
February	12.00	41.67
March	12.50	40.00
April	12.90	38.76
May	13.25	37.74
June	13.40	37.31
Avg. purchase cost of 6 SIPs	Rs 12.45

In the above table the average purchase cost of the SIP is Rs 12.45. Clearly, the SIP has not worked in the investor’s favour. Why is that? Because if he had instead invested lumpsum in January, his purchase cost would have been Rs 11.00 as opposed to the average purchase cost of Rs 12.45 over a 6-month period.


SIPs in a falling market

Month of investment	NAV (Rs)	No. of units
January	11.00	45.45
February	12.00	41.67
March	12.50	40.00
April	12.90	38.76
May	13.25	37.74
June	13.40	37.31
July	12.10	41.32
August	11.20	44.64
September	10.30	48.54
October	10.10	49.50
November	10.50	47.62
December	10.20	49.02
Avg. purchase cost of 12 SIPs	Rs 11.50

However, if the investor had opted for a longer investment tenure of say 12 months, he could have benefited from greater fluctuations in the mutual fund’s NAV. These fluctuations which arise over a market cycle lower the average purchase cost of the SIP over the long-term.

This is apparent from the above illustration. As is evident from the table, if the investor had taken an SIP for 12 months (instead of 6 months) his average purchase cost would have declined to Rs 11.50. Compare this with the average purchase cost of Rs 12.45 for a 6-month SIP.

It can be argued that there is no way for the investor to know when there is likely to be a turnaround in the markets (in this case a downturn). That is exactly our point. Since the investor does not know when markets will fall (and lower his average purchase cost), he must opt for a longer SIP tenure. Or at least he must manage his investments in a manner so that when his existing SIP terminates without witnessing a dip in stock markets, he can extend it further. This way should the markets fall, his SIP can benefit from a dip in the mutual fund NAV which in turn will lower his average purchase cost.

Points to remember before opting for an SIP

1) Ironically, while SIPs are meant to eliminate market-timing, investors must opt for a long-enough SIP tenure so as to ‘time’ the market downturn.

2) SIPs are equally beneficial in a falling market. Most investors believe that lumpsum investments (as opposed to SIPs) prove more beneficial in a falling market. This is only partly true. Having an SIP in operation during a falling market can ensure that investors stand to benefit should markets fall even further.

Gold ETF versus Buying Gold for Investment

While individual gold holdings are the highest in India, most of it is in the form of jewellery. But jewellery is an uneconomic method of holding gold as on selling jewellery you will lose up to 10 per cent of the gold value and also the making charges that you paid during the purchase.

“Those who want to buy gold for investment, prefer buying medallions and bars — this category has been growing in India over the past few years,” informs Mr Shah. Although coins and bars do not attract making charges, the sale discount is still there if the gold is not hallmarked. Hallmarked gold attracts the lowest discount and can be sold at 1-2 per cent lower than the market value.

Gold jewellery is not as good a investment as it is not as liquid as bars or gold funds, points out financial planner Gaurav Mashruwala. If you are saving to buy jewellery it makes sense to buy gold coins. These coins are accepted by jewellers in return for gold used in jewellery. If you intend to sell the coins, you may have to take a discount of up to 4 per cent, irrespective of how pure are the coins/bars.

But if you are holding a large quantity of gold, you will have to make provisions for storage and insurance as there is a security issue in keeping gold at home.

Gold ETFs are quite similar to mutual funds. The money you invest in gold ETFs is used to purchase physical gold of equivalent value. The advantage of ETFs are that the fund house that issues the gold ETF takes over the responsibility of storage and insurance of this gold. Gold ETFs are also tax efficient unlike physical gold. “While physical gold is considered a long-term investment, only if you hold the same for three years, gold ETFs acquire this status after one year,” says Mr Mashruwala.

In short, selling gold within three years of purchase will attract capital gains tax. Moreover , holding large quantities of physical gold can attract wealth tax, while gold in demat form does not. This apart, the spread between the buy and sell prices pertaining to gold ETFs is less than that of physical gold.

In other words, while your jeweller could sell you a gram of physical gold at Rs 105 and buy the same at Rs 95, you can buy a unit of gold ETF at Rs 101 and sell it at Rs 99. “Doing an SIP in gold would be the best option in the current scenario,” reckons Pritam Patnaik, AVP, Kotak Commodity Services.

The two gold ETFs that are more than a year old — Gold Benchmark ETF and UTI Gold ETF — have delivered more than 40 per cent returns in the last one year. In case of others too, the returns have been positive for most months, in contrast with equity and debt funds that have posted negative or mediocre returns. However, the two world gold funds, which invest in stocks of gold mining companies, have had to suffer a fate similar to other equity funds. “It is advisable that you invest in gold as a commodity. Gold funds basically invest in gold mining companies. If you buy a gold fund, you actually invest and take a risk on that company and not on gold," adds Mr Gopkumar.

"Insurance is a subject matter of solicitation." ???

This has something to do with the following concept behind the insurance:

(1) The Insurer (i.e. insurance company) and Insured (i.e. an individual) enter into a legal contract. The Insured pay a premium to the Insurer and in return the Insurer assures the Insured to compensate him against the losses or hazards mentioned in the contract.

(2) The Insured has an insurable interest in the subject matter (i.e. some property or life of certain individual). This means that the Insured stands to gain if the subject matter is protected against the hazards and will stand to lose if any damage is caused to the subject matter.

(3) Though the Insurer assures the Insured to compensate against certain type of losses, he do not assure to compensate 'all' the losses. In any case the Insured stand to lose 'something' in case of loss of damage to the subject matter. (For example, one can not get a property insured at a higher amount than its actual value and then stand to gain from insurance claim in case the property is damaged. This will be a breach of contract.)

(4) Even after entering into insurance contract with Insurer, the Insured will take all reasonable and appropriate steps for the safety of the subject matter. For example, if a house is insured against theft, fire, etc, the Insured party can not delibrately or negligently expose the house to such hazards.

(5) The Insurer approaches, prompts, lure (???) the Insured to enter into the insurance agreement. However, the Insured party is supposed to reveal all relevant information related to the subject matter in 'good faith'. For example, in case of life insurance the Insured is supposed to expressely reveal to the Insurer of any health complications, etc that he is aware of and that may have some impact on the insurance contract. (The insurance premium is decided keeping in view possible risk, so if some factors are concealed, it will impact the amount of premium.)

Technical Risk Ratios for Portfolio Planning

There are five ratios referred to while creating and maintaining efficient portfolios.

1. Alpha,
2. Beta,
3. Standard deviation,
   
4. R-squared, and
   
5. The Sharpe ratio.

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Alpha
A measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. Alpha takes the volatility (price risk) of a mutual fund and compares its risk-adjusted performance to a benchmark index. The excess return of the fund relative to the return of the benchmark index is a fund's alpha.

A positive alpha of 1.0 means the fund has outperformed its benchmark index by 1%. Correspondingly, a similar negative alpha would indicate an underperformance of 1%.

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Beta
A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.

Beta is calculated using regression analysis, and you can think of beta as the tendency of a security's returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security's price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means that the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 indicates that the security's price will be more volatile than the market. For example, if a stock's beta is 1.2, it's theoretically 20% more volatile than the market.

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Standard Deviation

Standard deviation is a statistical measurement that sheds light on historical volatility. For example, a volatile stock will have a high standard deviation while the deviation of a stable blue chip stock will be lower. A large dispersion tells us how much the return on the fund is deviating from the expected normal returns.

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R-squared

R-squared values range from 0 to 100. An R-squared of 100 means that all movements of a security are completely explained by movements in the index. A high R-squared (between 85 and 100) indicates the fund's performance patterns have been in line with the index. A fund with a low R-squared (70 or less) doesn't act much like the index.

A higher R-squared value will indicate a more useful beta figure. For example, if a fund has an R-squared value of close to 100 but has a beta below 1, it is most likely offering higher risk-adjusted returns. A low R-squared means you should ignore the beta.

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Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio tells us whether a portfolio's returns are due to smart investment decisions or a result of excess risk. This measurement is very useful because although one portfolio or fund can reap higher returns than its peers, it is only a good investment if those higher returns do not come with too much additional risk. The greater a portfolio's Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance has been.

A variation of the Sharpe ratio is the Sortino ratio, which removes the effects of upward price movements on standard deviation to measure only return against downward price volatility.

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Financial health of a company: some tips

We started off by eliminating all those companies that had recorded less than 15% growth in net sales and PAT in any of the past three years.

Further, we filtered companies on the basis of debt-to-equity ratio and return on capital employed (RoCE). While a high debt-to-equity ratio indicates that a company may not be able to generate enough cash to satisfy its debt obligations, a low leverage ratio increases a company’s potential to raise funds.

Hence, we selected companies which had a debtto-equity ratio of less than 1.5. In order to carry sustainable operations, it is necessary for a company to operate at an RoCE which is well above its cost of capital. Only those companies with an RoCE of more than 15% could make it to the next stage.

The final criterion was to do away with all companies whose three-year average net cash flows from operating activities was less than 50% of their reported cash profit.

SIP + Insurance but Not ULIP

A number of mutual fund companies have tied up with insurance companies to offer long-term investment plans that offer you an insurance cover for the residual part of your entire investment plan. If you die part of the way through the plan, then your survivors will get not just the principal and returns of the amount that you have invested, but also the amount that you had not yet invested, but intended to.

Because this product is so unusual, it's probably not quite clear how this works, so let me explain through a detailed example. Let's say that a forty-year old person decides to invest Rs 20,000 a month till he is fifty-five years old. This amounts to investing Rs 2.4 lakh a year, or Rs 36 lakh over the entire fifteen year period. He decides to invest this money in a Systematic Investment Plan of an equity fund. Based on past experience, he expects to earn an average of perhaps 15 per cent a year on the investments he makes.

He starts investing and for five years, everything is fine. His has invested Rs 20,000 a month for five years, which comes to a total of Rs 12 lakh. His investments have yielded an average of about 15 per cent a year and are now worth a total of Rs 17 lakh. At this point, an unfortunate mishap occurs and he passes away. Normally, that would be the end of the investment plan. Of the Rs 36 lakh he originally intended to invest, he could invest only Rs 12 lakh before he died.

However, if this person had invested in the insured investment products that I'm talking about, then this would not be the end of the story. The 24 lakh that he couldn't invest because he died will be paid to his family by the insurance company. So his family gets the Rs 41 lakh which is Rs 17 lakh (the current value of the 12 lakh that he was able to invest), plus the 24 lakh that he intended to invest but couldn't because he died. His family could then invest the money and thus make sure that the financial plan is not disrupted. This isn't like a normal insurance where the amount you are insured for stays constant. Instead, the amount insured keeps decreasing. At any point, this amount is equal to what remains out of the original investment plan that the investor signed up for.

The obvious question is who pays for the insurance. After all, if the insurance company is covering the risk of the investor's death, then the investor must be paying the premium somehow. The answer is that this premium is paid in the form of an extra one per cent load that is deducted out of the money that is invested. Normally, fund companies charge a load of 2.25 per cent out of the investment you make. In the case of this product, this load is one per cent more. For Rs 20,000 a month, that comes to an extra Rs 200, which would strike most of us as a fair price to pay for the peace of mind that this product offers.

What is interesting is that there is no lock-in and there's no obligation. If you want to pull out of the scheme at any point then you can just stop investing and withdraw your money. Such product, with minor variations, are offered by a number of fund companies including Kotak, DSPML and Reliance.

The obvious downside is that this product ties one to a particular fund company for a long period of time. I think that's where one should spread the risk a bit by splitting one's investment across funds from different companies.

Few things to know before you decide your SIP + Insure

1. Is there a minimum amount that has to be invested in the SIP?

2. Must the SIP be of a certain tenure?

3. Are all equity schemes of AMC, eligible or is it offered only on certain schemes?

4. Will the insured amount be given to the nominee or be used to continue with the SIP so that the investment plan continues?

5. Will all the insurance expenses be borne by the AMC?

6. Is there any age limit to avail of this scheme?

Smart tax-saving strategies without spending a penny

Shuffle strategy

As per tax rules, ELSS schemes are subject to a lock-in period of three years from the day of investing. And since there are no long-term capital gains tax for equity funds sold after a year of purchase, shuffling ELSS schemes practically entails zero costs. How does the shuffle strategy work? Say, for instance, investor A had been investing Rs 50,000 in ELSS every year for the past six years. Since there is a lock-in of three years for ELSS, his/her investment of last two years would not be redeemable. But those investments made more than three years ago could be redeemed and invested back into the fund to gain fresh tax benefits. Section 80 C of the Income Tax Act, allows tax deductions up to Rs 1 lakh of ELSS investment made in any financial year for an individual. “Earlier Section 88 had a condition for claiming rebate that the investment should be made out of the income chargeable to tax. This was subsequently removed to provide relief to the individual tax payers. Current provisions for claiming deduction under Section 80C do not contain this restriction. Therefore, investments could be made out of the current year’s taxable income or even the past accumulated savings/investments to claim the deduction from taxable income by an individual tax payer,” says KPMG executive director Vikas Vasal. While previously, such reinvestments attracted entry loads, the new Sebi rule has done away with such costs for direct investing. In this investment process though, there is a possibility that the investor might make small profit or losses since the NAV might move up or down during the shuffle process. Such shuffles while helping get tax benefits also gives a chance to have a relook at MF portfolio and prune investments if necessary.

Switching Strategy

There is one more quicker method and that is of switching out proceeds to a liquid fund of the same fund house and switching it back into the fund. Switching refers to the process of transfer of money from one scheme of a fund house to another scheme. While for taxation purposes, such switching is considered as redemption and taxed accordingly, the advantage for investors is in terms of getting NAV of the same day. So for instance, if an investor switches from an equity scheme to a liquid scheme, the same day NAV is applicable. How does it work ? Say for instance, an investor with previous ELSS investments doesn’t have money to make further investment in the current financial year 2008. He could consider switching it to a liquid fund and back into the ELSS fund. There are no loads applicable for doing it if done within a short period (say 10 days or lesser). The call centre officials of Franklin Templeton MF and ICICI Pru MF confirmed the same for their respective schemes. The recent Sebi rules also state that waiver of loads would be applicable for “additional purchases done directly by the investor under the same folio and switch-in to a scheme from other schemes if such a transaction is done directly by the investor.”

SideCar Investment

What Does it Mean?

An investment strategy in which one investor allows a second investor to control where and how to invest the capital. The sidecar investment will usually be used when one of the parties lacks the ability or confidence to invest for themselves. The strategy will place trust in someone else's ability to gain profits.

Investopedia Says...

The word "sidecar" refers to a motorcycle sidecar; the person riding in the sidecar must place his or her trust in the driver's skills. This differs from coattail investing, where one investor mimics the moves of another. For example, suppose there are two individuals - Fred, who is experienced in trading stock, and Barney, who has a background in real estate. They decide to work together in a sidecar investing strategy. In this case, Fred would give Barney money to invest in real estate on his behalf and Barney would give Fred money to invest in stocks. This setup allows both Fred and Barney to diversify their portfolios and benefit from one another's expertise.

Floating Rate Funds

Floating rate fundsFloating rate funds (or floaters as they are called) are just as critical in an uncertain interest rate scenario. These funds invest in floating rate debt instruments wherein the coupon rate is revised at regular intervals. Uncertainty in interest rates does not significantly impact the prices of floating rate instruments, because the coupon rate is adjusted (either lower or higher depending on the interest rate scenario) in response to the market rates. Again, given that portfolios of floaters are largely comparable, lower expenses are crucial in clocking a competitive return. While floaters come in both variants (short-term and long-term), opt for short-term floaters, which allow investors to redeem any time without paying an exit load (long-term floaters usually have an exit load on premature redemptions).

FMP Simplified

FMP's are investment instruments that are to be bought in the month of march. Since banks invite funds for investment for a very short duration of time, say a week or even less than that, in case you are interested in investing in FMP's, keep your eyes and ears open when March starts :)

Following piece of text would give some insight to what's and how's of Fixed Maturity Plans.

Fixed maturity plans (FMPs) have become popular amongst investors mainly as a foil for uncertain interest rates. FMPs by staying invested in a portfolio of bonds/government securities till maturity offer a relatively certain return despite their market-linked nature. During periods of uncertainty, the certain return offered by FMPs assumes even more significance. While FMPs are launched with varying tenures, go for the short-term FMPs (less than a year). If the interest rate scenario appears uncertain even after the FMP matures, you can consider rolling over to the next issue (provided the fund house is offering another FMP with a similar tenure).

Risks involved in FMP's: Visit this link :- http://www.personalfn.com/detail.asp?date=3/27/2008&story=2

Compare FD with FMP :-
http://personalfn.com/detail.asp?date=4/29/2008&story=1

Happy Investing.